Intellectual Performance using Dynamical Expert Knowledge in Seismic Environment

The paper introduces the notion of Dynamic Expert System. It shows that by restarting a common (static) expert system periodically it is possible to cope with dynamic environments. This quasi-static approach to dynamics is suitable if the environment is changing slowly enough in comparison with the inference engine operation and the user reaction time. Implementation of this scheme in "pure" Expert System shell meets no difficulties. However in practice some problems may occur due to the side effects in rules and attached procedures. These problems and their relation to classical AI issues are considered in details. The designed system has been applied to the task of seismology forecast, which contains the dynamical factors of both numerical and heuristic nature. The resulting dynamic expert system never stops, occasionally interrogating the user when it suspects that some of the previously entered data are obsolete. In this sense the computer system behaves as an “alive creature.”